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Philippines and the International Monetary Fund Negotiations on Petroleu

Toward a Theory of Negotiation
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In their negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, Philippine chief negotiators attempt to build coalitions to implement reform. Deference and "External-Internal" sequencing tactics are quite common, but the theoretical literature has not examined the conditions under which they are effective or marginalized. This study uses a "Within-Case Study Method of Causal Inference" to examine twenty-four observations from the years 1984-1994 that examine the interaction of the Philippine chief economic negotiators with the IMF, the Chief of Governments, international and domestic, and cabinet and societal veto players on the issues of petroleum price and import reforms. Through this approach, the study rules out alternative deductive system level theories to explain economic outcomes; refines the two-level game framework, generates a midrange typology on the pattern of successes and failures of the negotiations, and provides recommendations on manipulable variables for policy makers. The study suggests that these tactics are constrained by the leverage and signal provided by international veto players and the interaction between formal and informal domestic institutions.
Introduction Chapter 1: Background of the Philippines and the IMF Chapter 2: IMF-GOP 1984 Petroleum Price Observation Chapter 3: IMF-GOP 1986 Petroleum Price Observation Chapter 4: IMF-GOP 1989 Petroleum Price Observation Chapter 5 IMF-GOP 1991 Petroleum Price Observation Chapter 6 IMF-GOP 1994 Petroleum Price Observation Chapter 7 IMF-GOP 1984 Import Observation Chapter 8 IMF-GOP 1986 Import Observation Chapter 9 IMF-GOP 1989 Import Observation Chapter 10 IMF-GOP 1991 Import Observation Chapter 11 IMF-GOP 1994 Import Observation Chapter 12 Conclusion Bibliography About the Author
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