Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a China specialist based in Hong Kong, provides an overview of "Thucydides' Trap," as coined by political scientist Graham Allison to describe the inescapable conflict between Beijing and Washington. Is China's growing power a threat to the United States? Could it lead to war between the two nations? Economically and militarily stronger, and more nationalist than ever, the People's Republic of China is increasingly tempted to use force to assert its power, especially in its immediate region. First, the author considers the factors around the threat of war, specifically on the Chinese side, then presents the three most likely armed conflict scenarios: around Taiwan; in the South China Sea; or in the Senkaku Islands under Japanese control. Cabestan also analyses the tensions between China and India along their common borders, which were revived in 2020. But the most likely scenario, according to Cabestan, would be a rapid, piecemeal attack, aimed at tearing borders apart or defending vested interests - not to mention increased cyber warfare. It could also manifest itself as the emergence of a new type of cold war, punctuated by crises bordering on either a nuclear strike or the use of new weapons. U.S.-Chinese tensions and the many potential fronts on which they could elevate are a conflict-in-waiting which will weigh on the 21st century and dominate international life as China seeks to become entrenched as a dominant world power.
Jean-Pierre Cabestan is emeritus senior researcher at the French Center for Scientific Research, Paris, and emeritus professor of political science, department of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University. He is also associate researcher at the Asia Centre, Paris and at the French Centre for Research on Contemporary China, Hong Kong. His main themes of research are Chinese politics and law, China's foreign and security policies, China-Africa relations, China-Taiwan relations and Taiwanese politics. His most recent publications are China Tomorrow: Democracy or Dictatorship? (Rowman & Littlefield, 2019) and Demain la Chine: guerre ou paix? (China Tomorrow: War or Peace?, Gallimard, 2021), due to be published in English by Rowman & Littlefield in early 2023.
Introduction: The Thucydides Trap Revisited 1 An Accumulation of Passions and Ammunition China The United States China's Main Neighbors: Japan, India, Australia Conclusion 2 War Risks Debate in China China's Official Position: Xi Intends Avoiding War Debates Among Chinese Experts Conclusion 3 Is a Sino-US War over Taiwan Likely? Evolution in Chinese Reunification Strategy and US Engagements The PLA's Specific Preparations for War against Taiwan Evolution of Debates in China over an Anti-Taiwan War Evolution of US Debates over an Anti-Taiwan War Evolution of Debates and Defense Policy in Taiwan Gray Zones: Non-Military Ways of Subjugating Taiwan Conclusion: The Impact of the Ukraine War and Its Limits 4 War Risks in the South China Sea Various Parties' Claims and Controls Proliferating Sino-US Conflicts Conclusion 5 War Risks over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands Chinese and Japanese Stands on the Dispute Chinese Actions Aimed at Undermining Japanese Sovereignty over the Senkaku Hardening of Japanese and US Stands and the 2014 Agreement Crisis Management Mechanisms and Their Limitations Enhanced Senkaku Militarization Clarifications and Incertitudes Conclusion 6 Border Tensions and Risks of a China-India War Recent Rise in Border Tensions Risks of Sino-Indian War Conclusion 7 Which Armed Conflicts Might China Engage In? Warning Signs Strengthening PLA Projection Capabilities and Future MOA Scenarios Conclusion Conclusion: War or Peace Tomorrow? War Will Likely Not Erupt Tomorrow Risks or Armed Incidents and Military Crises Sino-US Struggle for World Leadership: How Will It End? Towards a New Kind of Cold War and Its Consequences for the Western Pacific The Role of the US and Its Allies About the Author
