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The Image of the Enemy

Intelligence Analysis of Adversaries since 1945
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Intelligence agencies spend huge sums of money to collect and analyze vast quantities of national security data for their political leaders. How well is this intelligence analyzed, how often is it acted on by policymakers, and does it have a positive or negative effect on decision making? Drawing on declassified documents, interviews with intelligence veterans and policymakers, and other sources, The Image of the Enemy breaks new ground as it examines how seven countries analyzed and used intelligence to shape their understanding of their main adversary. The cases in the book include the Soviet Union's analysis of the United States (and vice versa), East Germany's analysis of West Germany (and vice versa), British intelligence in the early years of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, Israeli intelligence about the Palestinians, Pakistani intelligence on India, and US intelligence about Islamist terrorists. These rivalries provide rich case studies for scholars and offer today's analysts and policymakers the opportunity to closely evaluate past successes and failures in intelligence analysis and the best ways to give information support to policymakers. Using these lessons from the past, they can move forward to improve analysis of current adversaries and future threats.
Introduction: Achieving Objective, Policy-Relevant IntelligencePaul Maddrell 1. Soviet Leaders, Soviet Intelligence, and Changing Views of the United States, 1965-1991Raymond L. Garthoff 2. The Stasi's Reporting on the Federal Republic of GermanyPaul Maddrell 3. "We May Not Always Be Right, but We're Never Wrong": US Intelligence Assessments of the Soviet Union, 1972-1991 Benjamin B. Fischer 4. East Germany in the Sights of the West German Federal Intelligence Service: Four Examples from As Many DecadesMatthias Uhl 5. British Intelligence, PIRA, and the Early Years of the Northern Ireland Crisis: Remembering, Forgetting, and MythologizingEunan O'Halpin6. Israeli Intelligence Threat Perceptions of Palestinian Terrorist Organizations, 1948-2008Tamir Libel and Shlomo Shpiro 7. Pakistani Intelligence and India Julian Richards 8. American Intelligence Assessments of the Jihadists, 1989-2011Mark Stout Conclusion: Intelligence and PolicyPaul Maddrell List of ContributorsIndex
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