Sales Forecasting Management 2/e

Dr. John T. (Tom) Mentzer is the Harry J. and Vivienne R. Bruce Chair of Excellence in Business in the Department of Marketing, Logistics and Transportation at the University of Tennessee. He has written more than 170 papers and articles, which have appeared in the Journal of Marketing, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of MacroMarketing, Industrial Marketing Management, the Journal of Marketing Education, the Columbia Journal of World Business, Research in Marketing, Social Indicators Research, the International Journal of Physical Distribution and Materials Management, the Journal of Business Logistics, the Logistics and Transportation Review, Transportation Journal, the Journal of Business Research, Advances in Business Research, the Journal of Forecasting, the Journal of Business Forecasting, and numerous conference proceedings. He has co-authored five books: SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT, SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT, SIMULATED PRODUCT SALES FORECASTING, MARKETING TODAY, and READINGS IN MARKETING TODAY and edited the monograph MARKETING EDUCATION SOFTWARE. Dr. Mentzer was recognized in 1996 as one of the five most prolific authors in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and in 1999 as the most prolific author in the Journal of Business Logistics. He was awarded the Academy of Marketing Science Outstanding Marketing Teacher Award in 2001. Mark Moon is an Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and his MBA and BA degrees from the University of Michigan. Mark's professional experience includes positions in sales and marketing with IBM and Xerox. He has been a member of UT's sales forecasting research team since 1996, and since that time, has published numerous articles on best practices in forecasting. Mark has played a key role in Phase 4 of the Sales Forecasting Benchmarking Studies, and has worked with 23 different companies to audit their forecasting practices.

PREFACE 1. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING PROCESS INTRODUCTION A DEMAND MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT FORECASTS VERSUS PLANS VERSUS TARGETS THE ROLE OF SALES FORECASTING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP) WHY IS A SALES FORECAST NEEDED? SUMMARY: ORGANIZATIONAL SALES FORECASTING NEEDS THE TOOLS OF SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS SALES FORECASTING AND PLANNING: AN ITERATIVE PROCESS FUNCTIONAL SILOS OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK 2. SALES FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT INTRODUCTION SALES FORECASTING ACCURACY SALES FORECOSTING COSTS CUSTOMER SATISFACTION PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER--A FORECASTING ROI DECISION CONCLUSIONS 3. TIMES SERIES FORECASTING TECHNIQUES INTRODUCTION FIXED-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES FIXED MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES SUMMARY OPEN-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES SUMMARY 4. REGRESSION ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION HOW REGRESSION ANALYSIS WORKS THE PROCESS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING FURTHER EVALUATION OF CANDIDATE MODELS MODEL VALIDATION AN EXAMPLE CONCLUSION NOTES 5. QUALITATIVE SALES FORECASTING INTRODUCTION QUALITATIVE FORECASTING: ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS SUMMARY: QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUE ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS MARKET RESEARCH TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING SUMMARY APPENDIX 6. SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS INTRODUCTION THE SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM AS A COMMUNICATION VEHICLE MULTICASTER SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS: SUMMARY APPENDIX 7. BENCHMARK STUDIES: THE SURVEYS INTRODUCTION STUDIES PRIOR TO PHASE 1 PHASE 2 METHODOLOGY FINDINGS COMPARING PHASE 1 TO PHASE 2 CONCLUSIONS FROM COMPARING PHASE 1 AND PHASE 2 SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT FORECASTING IN CONSUMER VERSUS INDUSTRIAL MARKETS CONCLUSIONS: INDUSTRIAL VERSUS CONSUMER FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS FROM PHASE 2 8. BENCHMARK STUDIES: WORLD-CLASS FORECASTING INTRODUCTION FUNCTIONAL INTEGRATION APPROACH SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT CONCLUSIONS APPENDIX: SALES FORECASTING AUDIT PROTOCOL 9. BENCHMARK STUDIES: CONDUCTING A FORECASTING AUDIT INTRODUCTION THE ROLE OF AUDITING MANAGEMENT RESPONSE TO AUDITS CONCLUSIONS 10. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING FUNCTION INTRODUCTION THE ROLE OF THE SALES FORECASTING CHAMPION THE SEVEN KEYS TO BETTER FORECASTING WHY THE CEO SHOULD CARE THE CEO SHOULD CARE AT TELLABS CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES INDEX

"The authors have shared their valuable experiences and knowledge gained over the years while working with companies on sales forecasting. The book comprises of ten chapters in total and provides good coverage. The book well describes the issues, developments and required understanding about sales forecasting practices with illustrations and required possible information through appendixes and notes at the end of chapters where needed." -- Anita Goyal * The Journal of Business Perspective * "The book integrates the theory and practice of sales forecasting management by providing comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sale forecasting analysis. The second edition of the book provides new insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting. Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. It will be very useful for academics as well as business executives who will find much of value and insight from the book." -- B. D. Pande * Personnel Today *