The Autocrat's Predicament

Timothy R. Heath is senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corporation who previously served in the U.S. government as an intelligence specialist on China

Introduction. The Political Challenge of Intensive Growth Policies Chapter 1. The Theory of the Enabling Condition Chapter 2. China 1991-1997: Deng Xiaoping's Triumph and a Toxic Political Legacy Chapter 3. China 2004-2010: Hu Jintao: Professionalization Fails to Convert Opposing Elites Chapter 4. China 2013-2020: A Fragmented Public Undermines Xi's Centralization Strategy Chapter 5. Taiwan 1973-79: Success Amid a Looming Threat of an Elite-Led Popular Mobilization Chapter 6. Soviet Union 1985-1990: Weak Central Leadership, Strong Elite Opposition Dooms Perestroika Chapter 7. Comparative Analysis Conclusion

"China's economic growth has been outstanding over the past four decades, but continuing that trajectory depends on changing China's growth model from one of extensive growth to one of intensive growth. Tim Heath argues that this transformation depends more on political considerations than economic policies. In particular, he argues that single party, Leninist-style polities have a difficult time transforming their economic systems because they usually lack what he calls an 'enabling condition' - a combination of a strong central government, a weak opposition, and a cohesive public - but efforts to shore up one of these conditions tends to weaken one or more of the other two conditions. This is a novel and welcome new approach to understanding China's political economy." -- Joseph Fewsmith, Boston University "This compelling book explains why economic modernization requires at least limited political liberalization. Heath's argument offers a clear warning to China's leaders and holds important insights for China watchers abroad." -- Bruce Dickson, George Washington University "Heath's timely and expansive book puts China's pursuit of innovation-driven growth in comparative perspective, with an emphasis on politics. The Autocrat's Predicament shows how difficult it is for authoritarian regimes to orchestrate economic growth and renders Xi Jinping's particular political strategies legible. Anyone interested in understanding the evolution and future of China's pursuit of political control and economic growth should read this book." -- Meg Rithmire, Harvard Business School